媒体、动荡和民主

1946至2003年122个国家的granger因果分析本文运用了跨国时间序列granger因果检验的数据,分析了以122个国家作为样本的媒介技术的民主效果。这个过程揭示了传播技术对民主至关重要的作用,但绝不是民主增长的唯一和通用的先决条件。正如媒介系统从属关系理论所预期的那样,只有在媒体有较多的信息功能或社会政治不稳定水平较高的国家媒介扩散才能产生granger引起的民主。结果进一步表明媒介扩散对社会政治动荡的发展至关重要,这表明大众媒体传播的某些直接和简洁的宏观民主影响。

【文章摘要】Media, Instability, and Democracy: Examining the Granger-Causal Relationships of 122 Countries From 1946 to 2003

Using cross-national time-series data in sequences of Granger causality tests, this study analyzed the democratic effects of media technologies with a sample of 122 countries. This process revealed that communication technologies are vital, but not exclusive or universal prerequisites of democratic growth. As expected by media system dependency (MSD) theory, media diffusion was shown to have Granger-caused democracy only in countries where media served more information functions or where sociopolitical instability levels were higher. Results further indicated that media diffusion is central to the development of sociopolitical instability, which suggests certain direct and indirect macrolevel democratic effects of mass media diffusion. The conditions of MSD theory observed here also demonstrated an integrative relationship with the economic development thesis.

【文章作者】Jacob Groshek*

【文章来源】Article first published online: 7 DEC 2011

DOI: 10.1111/j.1460-2466.2011.01594.x


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