牛津大学的报告认为:近半的美国工作十分弱势,趋向被电脑化取代

#研究分享#牛津大学马丁学院就科技对未来工作的影响进行研究:1)在美国,45%的职业将在未来20年里面趋向自动化,即不少人的工作可能不保;2)第一波受影响的行业包括:物流、生产、行政支援;第二波则包括:管理、科学、工程和艺术;3)如个人希望保持竞争,则需提升其在创意和社交技巧上的能力。

原文标题:Report Suggests Nearly Half of U.S. Jobs Are Vulnerable to Computerization

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Oxford researchers say that 45 percent of America’s occupations will be automated within the next 20 years.Rapid advances in technology have long represented a serious potential threat to many jobs ordinarily performed by people.

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A recent report (which is not online, but summarized here) from the Oxford Martin School’s Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology attempts to quantify the extent of that threat. It concludes that 45 percent of American jobs are at high risk of being taken by computers within the next two decades.

The authors believe this takeover will happen in two stages. First, computers will start replacing people in especially vulnerable fields like transportation/logistics, production labor, and administrative support. Jobs in services, sales, and construction may also be lost in this first stage. Then, the rate of replacement will slow down due to bottlenecks in harder-to-automate fields such engineering. This “technological plateau” will be followed by a second wave of computerization, dependent upon the development of good artificial intelligence. This could next put jobs in management, science and engineering, and the arts at risk.

The authors note that the rate of computerization depends on several other factors, including regulation of new technology and access to cheap labor.

These results were calculated with a common statistical modeling method. More than 700 jobs on O*Net, an online career network, were considered, as well as the skills and education required for each. These features were weighted according to how automatable they were, and according to the engineering obstacles currently preventing computerization.

“Our findings thus imply that as technology races ahead, low-skill workers will reallocate to tasks that are non-susceptible to computerization—i.e., tasks that required creative and social intelligence,” the authors write. “For workers to win the race, however, they will have to acquire creative and social skills.”

文章链接:http://www.technologyreview.com/view/519241/report-suggests-nearly-half-of-us-jobs-are-vulnerable-to-computerization/

文章来源:MIT Technology Review

作者:Aviva Hope Rutkin


1 条评论

  1. wuyijia说道:

    师兄,我觉得这篇文章提到的生活离我们蛮远的,转发可能不会高,所以就没有发。



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