一条微博能走多远?

#研究分享#【一条微博能走多远?】来自MIT的研究者通过收集多种话题域中的被转发的帖子,然后分析一条帖子首次发帖的时间以及经转发而带来的扩散速度。基于此数据,他们构建了预测模型,并较为精确地预测出一条帖子的转发次数。这一成果发表在《应用统计学年鉴》上。作者指出,借助分析这种转发行为,我们能更有效地弄清一条帖子在Twitter及其他社交媒体上扩散的范围,这对于市场营销和政治竞选都有助益。

【文章全文】Can You Predict How Many Times a Tweet Will be Retweeted

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A year ago some researchers at MIT believed they had stumbled across the secret behind why tweets get shared. They narrowed it down to a list of ten things that go a long way to ensuring your tweets get shared, including things such as using less than 70 characters and revealing the inner you.

 

MIT is back with a fresh look at the business of retweets. This time they’ve created a model that they believe lets them predict with a good degree of accuracy how many times a tweet will be retweeted. They’ve made a site to showcase the model, using famous Twitter users as live guinea pigs. You can see an individuals latest tweet, together with a prediction for how many times it will be retweeted.

 

The model was created by collecting retweets across a range of topics. They then explored the time of the original tweet and how fast it spread via retweets. They used this data on popularity to build their predictive model.

 

The researchers’ findings were explained in a paper submitted to the Annals of Applied Statistics. In the paper, the authors note that “understanding retweet behavior could lead to a better understanding of how broader ideas spread in Twitter and in other social networks,” and such data may be helpful in a number of areas, like marketing and political campaigning.

 

I’m kinda in the sceptic camp when it comes to things like this, as I don’t believe the viral nature of the web is something that can be easily predicted. For instance Sharad Goel looked at how ideas diffuse through social networks and found that the vast majority struggle to achieve one ‘hop’, or in other words, they might get passed on once if they’re lucky, but seldom beyond that first generation of shares.

 

This finding was then replicated by Microsoft a few months later. They analysed billions of pages of content, and found that those that were passed through 20 generations were literally one in a million, and that little in these lucky few could tie them together enough to form a viral recipe book.  So I’m inclined to think that Twouija is a fun toy to play around with, but of little use in predicting when tweets will go viral.

【文章作者】Adi Gaskell

【文章来源】socialmediatoday

【文章链接】http://socialmediatoday.com/adi-gaskell/1512856/can-you-predict-how-many-times-tweet-will-be-retweeted


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