比特币的未来

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【比特币的未来:来自专家的3个预测】比特币已经受到投机商、媒体甚至是美国政府日益增长的兴趣。并非由中央银行发行流通的,甚至带有科幻小说的成分,使用户难以定义比特币到底是真正的现金还是只是另一种投机行为?权威的比特币专家预测比特币的未来:1、比特币能够帮助普通人。比特币可以帮助来自拉丁美洲或亚洲的拥有不健全的银行系统的国家来改善其现金流条件,另外,比特币还提供了新的现金形式和转账平台,尤其是对依赖汇寄或为高额转账费头疼的人们——他们只需要与世界上任何一个地方的人直接交易,并且几乎不会花费任何费用。2、比特币目前比较复杂,而未来一段时间仍将如此。比特币是安全和稳定的,但其生态系统的其他部分目前仍需要进一步发展,如分类账系统等仍需要改善以进一步简化比特币的交易过程。再如比特币交易软件仍然相当复杂。但已经有公司尝试用比特币支付员工工资。3、比特币将会被管制,而这是一件好事情。管制是任何一个成熟的财务系统所必须的一个部分,比特币需要更加理性和成熟的管制结构。
The future of Bitcoin: 3 predictions from experts
Bitcoin is a cyber-currency of growing interest to speculators, the media and — most recently — the U.S. government. Many stories about Bitcoin, which is mined by computers and circulates without a central bank, contain sinister or science-fiction elements that make it hard to tell if the currency is for real or just an overblown gimmick.

On Thursday evening, GigaOM hosted a meetup in San Jose where six Bitcoin authorities, including investors and engineers, shared their views on how the currency is evolving and who is using it. Here are three of the larger ideas to emerge from the discussion (if you want to catch up on the basics of Bitcoin, see “Yes, you should care about Bitcoin and here’s why“):

Bitcoin can help ordinary people

Wences Casares, a venture capitalist and CEO of Lemon Wallet, grew up in Argentina, where he experienced first hand what happens when a government mismanages its currency: inflation, capital controls and the destruction of family savings. Today, the same thing is happening all over again as desperate Argentines try to convert their pesos into a store of value that the government can’t seize or destroy.

One option is Bitcoin. Casares explained how some people in his country are using “old Android phones” to acquire and exchange Bitcoins at a time when the government is clamping down on the trade in U.S. dollars. More remarkably, Casares noted, is that many of the people using Bitcoin don’t know much about technology — but they do know, through hard experience, about currencies and can recognize alternate sources of money.

Other speakers and audience members also described the potential of cyber-currencies like Bitcoin to ameliorate the broken or compromised banking infrastructure in places like Latin America and Asia.

In the larger picture, Bitcoin could be just one part of an impending revolution in the world’s money transfer networks. Specifically, new currencies and transfer platforms may provide a way for people, including those who rely on remittances, to escape the high transfer fees imposed by credit card and wire companies — and simply exchange money directly with one another around the world at almost no cost.

Bitcoin is complicated — and is going to stay that way for a while

Mike Hearn is a young engineer from Google who uses his 20 percent time to work on developing Bitcoin software. At the meetup, he chatted about infrastructure and security with Bennett Hoffman, a former Microsoft employee who is building a new Bitcoin exchange called Buttercoin.

The two engineers agreed that the system that creates Bitcoins is secure and stable, even if parts of the surrounding ecosystem (exchanges, wallets and so on) are not. Hearn said Bitcoin is not ready for “your grandma” just yet — and that is, in part, a choice by those who are building and fine-tuning the Bitcoin open source code bequeathed by the currency’s pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakaomot.

Hearn’s point is that he and others are focused now on improving the processing and ledger system that facilitates Bitcoin transactions; they are ensuring that it can scale in the same way that the Visa payment network is able to handle sales spikes. This focus on “the guts” of Bitcoin means that, for now, the software will remain complicated and will be a challenge to those who aspire to build consumer-facing interfaces on top of it.

This won’t, however, prevent Bitcoin from gaining traction in the real world. David Barrett, CEO of Expensify, explained earlier in the evening that his firm now allows companies to reimburse their employees’ expense reports in Bitcoin. According to Barrett, the Bitcoin option is not a gimmick but rather a cheap and practical solution for companies to pay employees across borders.

Bitcoin will be regulated — and that’s a good thing

Bitcoin watchers gasped this weekend when the Department of Homeland Security executed a seizure warrant against the owner of Mt. Gox, the Japanese exchange where many people trade the currency. The law enforcement action, which comes after U.S. securities regulators said they are looking at Bitcoin, posed a new liquidity threat to the currency and also reinforced its outlaw reputation.

Surprisingly, the Bitcoin backers at the event appeared to welcome the government’s growing involvement. According to Micky Malka of Ribbit Capital, which is investing in Bitcoin ventures, regulation is not just inevitable — but desirable.

“I’m already regulated by eight central banks,” said Malka, explaining that regulation is simply part of any mature financial system and that, in the case of Bitcoin, it is likely to introduce a new level of stability. Malka and others, including the Bitcoin Foundation, said they are less interested in libertarian fantasies than they are in establishing a rational and informed regulatory structure around the currency. Malka added that his biggest fear for Bitcoin is not the U.S. government but shenanigans by speculators.

The bottom line

The San Jose event felt at times like a cross between an investor seminar and a church revival, with the packed room sometimes applauding wildly at the blue skies of Bitcoin. But that doesn’t mean there’s not something very real going on here — a lot of very smart and credible people are putting a lot of time and money on the line in an effort to redefine the world’s financial infrastructure.

According to Wences Caseres, the moment feels like 1992, when the world was on the cusp of discovering the world wide web but hadn’t yet found the right user interface. He might be right.
文章作者:Jeff John Roberts
文章来源:gigaom
文章链接:http://gigaom.com/2013/05/17/the-future-of-bitcoin-3-predictions-from-experts/


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