【AI能预测恐怖袭击吗?】

【AI能预测恐怖袭击吗?】华盛顿初创公司Predata称其研发的“少数派报告”软件能准确预测下一次恐怖袭击的发生。据称,它每天可跟踪200个国家50000份不同主题的视频,1000条推特以及10000份维基百科内容,并将之与过去的数据进行对比,形成对未来事件的预测。作为测试,它发现巴黎恐怖袭击案件中网络活动曾出现了一个峰值。

Could AI predict World War 3? ‘Moneyball’ startup claims it can forecast the future by comparing online chatter with past data

  • Predata looks at 1,000 Twitter feeds and 10,000 Wikipedia pages each day
  • It tracks 50,000 YouTube videos from 200 countries, on a range of topics
  • Software compares patterns of activity on these sites to historical data
  • It was tested to see if it could predict the Paris attacks, and it found a spike in relevant activity online in the days leading up to the November 13

Every day, Predata monitors 1,000 Twitter feeds, 10,000 Wikipedia pages, 50,000 YouTube videos ¿ as well as several dozen newspapers. It covers 300 topics in 200 countries, including news about business and political decisions. It collects the metadata users leave on these sites, monitoring their levels of activity and tone

A Washington-based company claims to have created Minority Report-style software that can accurately predict the chance of the next terrorist attack.

Predata, founded by James Shinn, uses data from online activity on sites such as Wikipedia, YouTube and Facebook, and compares them with past patterns.

Similar to a weather forecast, it then provides its outlook on political unrest and attacks on different areas on the world.

Predata, founded by James Shinn, uses data from online activity on sites such as Wikipedia, YouTube and Facebook, and compares them with past patterns. The software found a spike in relevant activity online in the days leading up to the November 13 attacks in Paris, as shown by the graph

In a report in Bloomberg, Shinn likens his product to sabermetrics, the statistics-driven baseball strategy made famous by Michael Lewis's Moneyball.

'The Predata approach is built on the idea that this footprint can be exploited to generate meaningful signals to warn of imminent terror attacks,' said Predata's Richard Laurent writing in Medium.

Most of this information, he says, is freely available on the internet and gathering does not impinge on civil liberties.

'The open internet is littered with material that can give us important clues about where and when the attackers will strike next,' he said.

The in-depth report by Bloomberg stresses that Predata doesn't replace human analysts, but offers them a new way of analysing big data.

The software needs sets of historical events to predict the chances of similar events. In the case of the recent Brussels terrorist attacks, there was no data, and so the software was unable to predict the event. Pictured, is a memorial gathering near the old stock exchange in Brussels, which was set up following the attacks 

Every day, Predata monitors 1,000 Twitter feeds, 10,000 Wikipedia pages, 50,000 YouTube videos – as well as several dozen newspapers.

It covers 300 topics in 200 countries, including news about business and political decisions.

The team wanted to see if their software could have predicted the November 13 attacks on Paris, had it been used.

 

'We scraped the metadata users leave in strategically important places like Wikipedia, YouTube and mainstream news media sites,' explained Laurent in Medium.

The team limited the signal to two main areas or topics — the French-language discussion on Wikipedia around ISIS/ISIL, and Opération Chammal, the French military operation in Syria.

They then measured the level of activity, including the levels of discussion, on the web pages selected.

'The signal, an index of the volatility of online chatter, showed a clear spike in the days leading up to the November 13 attacks,' said Laurent.

'[This was] driven in large part by activity on the French-language Wikipedia page on the Islamic State.'

Bloomberg claims one problem could be if someone tries to trick the software.

But Shinn the internet's 'democratic checks and balances' will keep the technology relatively safe from attempts to fool it.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3527075/Could-AI-predict-World-War-3-Moneyball-startup-claims-forecast-future-comparing-online-chatter-past-data.html


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