恶魔级寒冬到来,NASA:厄尔尼诺要消失

【恶魔级寒冬到来,NASA:厄尔尼诺要消失】上次广州下雪是在1925年,今天广州飘起了雪花。似乎全球气温升高会导致暖冬,那今年的极度严寒如何解释呢?NASA认为在接下来几个月中,热带太平洋水温将会逐渐降低,转变为拉尼拉现象。而这一切变化都是因为全球变暖导致的气候异常。或许,我们真的离《2012》不远了。

Is this the end of El Niño? Nasa say phenomenon should start to disappear – but warn global warming means 'anything could happen'

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'Warmer-than-average waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean should start to cool off and shift westward.

'By summer, the tropical Pacific might be back in a neutral state or La Niña cooling could kick in, as it did after major El Niños of the past.

'But will the ocean respond in 2016 the way it did in 1998 and 1983? Given that the planet is hotter than at any time in the past 135 years, there are no guarantees.'

According to researchers from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, water temperatures in the Niño3.4 region of the tropical Pacific—an area that is usually the focal point of such events—broke a record in December 2015.

Sea surface temperatures averaged 2.38° Celsius above the norm, surpassing December 1997, which was 2.24°C above normal.

For October through December 2015, the three-month temperature average for the Niño3.4 region was equal to the record high from the same months in 1997.

The measurements come from the altimeter on the Jason-2 satellite and show averaged sea surface height anomalies.

Shades of red indicate where the ocean stood higher than the normal sea level; warmer water expands to fill more volume.

Shades of blue show where sea level and temperatures were lower than average (water contraction).

Normal sea-level conditions appear in white.

In its January 14 update, NOAA's Climate Prediction Service stated: 'A strong El Niño continued during December, with well above-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean...El Niño has already produced significant global impacts and is expected to affect temperature and precipitation patterns across the United States during the upcoming months...Most models indicate that a strong El Niño will weaken with a transition to ENSO-neutral during the late spring or early summer.'

Tony Busalacchi, an oceanographer at the University of Maryland, said that precipitation has so far 'followed the classic El Niño patterns' observed in the 1997–98 and 1982–83 events.

For instance, in the southern United States, the winter has been cooler than normal and quite wet.

The Pacific Northwest has also been soaked by rain and snow storms.

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Across the Pacific, Indonesia and other areas have been dry.

'It has been another 'event of the century' much like the one we just had in 97–98.

The question is: will this event bring California and other western areas out of drought? And how quickly will we flip into La Niña?'

Bill Patzert, a climatologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, sees the potential for a second peak for this El Niño.

He points to a recent relaxation in the trade winds and a west wind burst that could refuel the warming trend in the eastern Pacific.

Weaker trade winds in the eastern Pacific allow west wind bursts to push warm waters toward the Americas. (Click here to watch Kelvin waves propagating across the ocean.)

Patzert suspects February and March 2016 could still be very active months for El Niño-driven weather along the western coasts of the Americas.

Forecasters have previously revealed the catastrophic effects this year's record breaking El Niño has had on weather around the world.

They say that even though they expect the sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific to decrease gradually over the next several months, 'there is still a lot going on'.

For America, they warn the effect is 'just beginning'.

'El Niño put up some pretty impressive numbers in December, and we're favouring a transition to neutral conditions by the late spring or early summer.' Emily Becker of the NOAA said.

The Niño3.4 index, which compares ocean surface temperatures in the east-central Pacific to the long-term average, broke the record in December, coming in at 2.38°C above average, surpassing December 1997's 2.24°C.

'The main season for El Niño impacts in the U.S. (January–March) is just beginning in the U.S., but it's winding down in other areas of the world,' Becker said.

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Australia's typical El Niño impact is dry conditions over most of the continent from about July through December, but through this period there hasn't been a very clear deficit except in portions of eastern Australia.

It's possible that a record warm Indian Ocean had a strong effect on the climate in Australia this year, a reminder that the climate system has a lot of moving parts, and impacts from El Niño are expected, but not guaranteed.

That said, in other areas of the world, El Niño impacts were clearer. Much more rain than normal fell in eastern Africa, as their 'short rains' rainy season (October–December) was enhanced by El Niño, while southern Africa has had continued dry conditions. Uruguay, southern Brazil, and Paraguay also experienced a lot of rain, and northern South America has been dry, as often happens in September–December during El Niño.

Forecasters expect the sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific to decrease gradually over the next several months, and we're favouring a transition to neutral conditions by the late spring or early summer.

Meteorologists say the current El Nino has stormed its way into the record books, tying 1997-1998 as the strongest recorded.

Mike Halpert, deputy director of the federal Climate Prediction Center, said initial figures for October-November-December match the same time period in 1997 for the strongest El Nino.

Meteorologists measure El Nino based on how warm parts of the central Pacific for three consecutive months.

Records go back to 1950.

El Nino is the natural warming of the central Pacific that changes weather worldwide, including bringing more rain to California.

Halpert said what really matters is what El Nino does during January, when its impact peaks.

Weather Underground meteorology director Jeff Masters said 'Darth Nino may finally have California in its sights,' as a series of storms may dent record drought.

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The current strong El Niño brewing in the Pacific Ocean shows no signs of waning, new Nasa images have revealed.

'El Niño 2015 has already created weather chaos around the world,' Nasa said.

'Over the next few months, forecasters expect the United States to feel its impacts as well.'

The latest Jason-2 image bears a striking resemblance to one from December 1997, by Jason-2's predecessor, the Nasa /Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES) Topex/Poseidon mission, during the last large El Niño event.

The images show nearly identical, unusually high sea surface heights along the equator in the central and eastern Pacific: the signature of a big and powerful El Niño.

Higher-than-normal sea surface heights are an indication that a thick layer of warm water is present.

El Niños are triggered when the steady, westward-blowing trade winds in the Pacific weaken or even reverse direction, triggering a dramatic warming of the upper ocean in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.

Clouds and storms follow the warm water, pumping heat and moisture high into the overlying atmosphere.

These changes alter jet stream paths and affect storm tracks all over the world.

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This year's El Niño has caused the warm water layer that is normally piled up around Australia and Indonesia to thin dramatically, while in the eastern tropical Pacific, the normally cool surface waters are blanketed with a thick layer of warm water.

This massive redistribution of heat causes ocean temperatures to rise from the central Pacific to the Americas.

It has sapped Southeast Asia's rain in the process, reducing rainfall over Indonesia and contributing to the growth of massive wildfires that have blanketed the region in choking smoke.

El Niño is also implicated in Indian heat waves caused by delayed monsoon rains, as well as Pacific island sea level drops, widespread coral bleaching that is damaging coral reefs, droughts in South Africa, flooding in South America and a record-breaking hurricane season in the eastern tropical Pacific.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3412610/Is-end-El-Ni-o-Nasa-say-phenomenon-start-disappear-warn-global-warming-means-happen.html


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