科学发展正在衰退,数字技术是助推力?

#研究分享#【科学发展正在衰退,数字技术是助推力?】来自芬兰和美国的研究者认为,目前科学研究正处于衰退状态。研究者对相关领域前沿科技成果的更新和学习速度跟不上科学论文指数级的增长速度。相应的,个人科研论文被引用的次数也在迅速衰退中。这意味着,科研成果会迅速被“遗忘”。数字时代,随着信息指数增长,人们注意力集中的时间越来越短,昨天的东西可能就已经“过时”,失去了价值。

 

Attention decay in science

Pietro Della Briotta Parolo, Raj Kumar Pana, Rumi Ghosh, Bernardo A. Huberman, Kimmo Kaski, Santo Fortunato

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Abstract

The exponential growth in the number of scientific papers makes it increasingly difficult for researchers to keep track of all the publications relevant to their work. Consequently, the attention that can be devoted to individual papers, measured by their citation counts, is bound to decay rapidly. In this work we make a thorough study of the life-cycle of papers in different disciplines. Typically, the citation rate of a paper increases up to a few years after its publication, reaches a peak and then decreases rapidly. This decay can be described by an exponential or a power law behavior, as in ultradiffusive processes, with exponential fitting better than power law for the majority of cases. The decay is also becoming faster over the years, signaling that nowadays papers are forgotten more quickly. However, when time is counted in terms of the number of published papers, the rate of decay of citations is fairly independent of the period considered. This indicates that the attention of scholars depends on the number of published items, and not on real time.

Keywords: Decay of attention, Citation count, Time evolution

 

论文链接:http://arxiv.org/pdf/1503.01881v1.pdf


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